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you want to go premium. then you will
we can argue long and hard about whether you like it or not, enrique, but it is what it is. and it's not changing this season.
if cancellara was injured then you wouldn't have picked him last year. what's the difference? If you think GT is expensive, don't pick him. pick someone else. nothing's changed.
calculations based on raw data will leave some riders looking cheap (andy schleck) and some expensive (in this case, GT). human based calculations will do the same, as we found out last year. but the data is likely, on the whole, to do a better job.
1. stage 2 was classed as flat terrain, it just happened to be that the race broke up and Thomas won
2. Well unfortunately that is not the way it is, had say Wiggins been riding his value would have been high, but would have reduced relatively due to the terrain etc compared to had it been paris-nice etc.
The difference with Gerrans is last year at the TDU he won the only non-flat stage and that was enough to win the GC, the race played out totally differently so his scores would not have been on flat stages as Qatar is
3. Well yes they are calculated via a formula, without that it would be almost impossible for the work to go into change values for every race, however the change in values throws in realism and means you need to put thought into picking a team
4. I believe his value you would stay the same, its Fabians choice to race, unfortunately injury comes under form and that is just tough for regards the rider, and if that impacts his performance re the game, its down to you to decide whether his value is worth picking him, as you would any other rider who may be loosing or about to come into form regardless of what there exact value may be.
Yeah, Simon Gerrans is a good example. For the TdU he cost 18.7 credits, if you find him in game for the ToQ (he's not riding) he's priced at only 12.7. That's because:
a) the terrain doesn't suit him so much and
b) his 12 month form/points (which no longer includes his TdU 2012 win) will have dropped
People go up and down, look at Phillipe Gilbert, he was 25.7 for the TdU, he would be 24.3 for the ToQ because the terrain doesn't suit him.
Players always get caught up in the fact that x or y rider has increased in cost but never mention the riders who've gotten cheaper over the years (Andy Schleck anyone?!).
GT is the rider with the highest form in the whole game, he's good on flat stages too. of course he's expensive for the TOQ.
there'll always be riders who outperform their value. you'll just have to work a bit harder to find them. and like drheaton says, not everyone's going to get more expensive
You're forgetting one of the major factors in price variation, the parcours of the race.
As well as the fact that GT has great fantasy form right now in the last twelve months over 50% of his points have come on flat stages. Because the ToQ is basically a flat race that means statistically he's more likely to score, according to how he's built up points in the last year.
It works the other way though. If the next race Cavendish takes part in is just medium and high mountain stages his value would plummet.
you also have to remember, its impossible for every riders form to increase between now and the Grand Tours, there's only so many fantasy points available, so for every rider who's form and value increase others will be decreasing.
doc, this is what's weird for me... Obviously I don't have access to Thomas's points last year and when he picked them up, but...
1. Dave, doc, I may be proven wrong, which would be ironic, but Thomas picked up, I think, 118 of his 193 or so points at the TDU in Stages 2, 3 and 5, which included hilly terrain and were won by the likes of Thomas himself, Slagter and Gerrans... I don't see Qatar as a race where Thomas will be able to pull away like he did at the TDU ... If I had to guess, I'd value EBH higher than Thomas at Qatar... but maybe I'm wrong, I may have to eat my words... My point is, why should he rocket that high for this race?
2. As above, I would expect a rider with a value in the 30's able to win the race... I don't see Qatar as a race that, for illustration purposes, had you taken Gerrans right after he won the TDU last year, hat he would have been a favorite for Qatar had he raced it. As it stand, Geraint is the 3rd highest valued rider in this race ... I guess I'm just in favor of more gradual changes between races
3. All this makes ne feel like rider values are now set completely by a preset formula, is that true, by the way?, which I don't completely like, that is, leaving the whole rider value to the calculations of raw data... If it is true that rider values are now completely calculated by data and there is no input from game managers, then I'd throw in the formulas a limit, say of 5 points, which would be the most a rider's can fluctuate between races...
4. A hypothetical scenario.... take Cancellara last season, and I hope I don't jinx him!
! His value is high for the Classics, let's say 35 points, then for illustration purposes, let's say he wins two races and his value goes up to say, 39 points, then he crashes, in this hypothetical example, but let's suppose he crashes hard but still can and does ride the next race, without missing any race, but he races with a cast on one of his hands, blah, blah, blah and he says I will race to see how it goes, blah blah blah, but he doesn't expect to contend and all his teammates and managers and his doctors confirm, yeah, he's screwed, he won't be there at the finale of any upcoming race... Will his race value in the game stay the same numerically because of his past performance or will the game managers be able to factor in this situation?
Just thinking aloud here... Sad little life I have to ponder all these things!
Oops, reposted the above post and don't know how to delete a post so I edited this one...
You're assuming that there is some subjectivity in the system, there is not. Dave isn't setting rider values based on what he expects them to do, the game itself is setting values based on statistics. Thomas scored 52 points on the last stage of the TdU which was flat and the stage where he scored 60 points was also classed as 'FL' so that counts too. That means 'statistically' he has both high form and a high average score on flat stages. The game logic uses these facts to calculate a value but that isn't indicative of how the rider 'might' do, just how they've done in the past. If you think Thomas is overpriced, don't pick him.
As above, the price is not a projection of how well the rider will do, just a price based on how they have done in the past on stages that occur in the upcoming race. Thomas has done well on flat stage, flat stage make up the majority of the ToQ, therefore logically he'll do well in the ToQ. Of course, the game logic doesn't take into account the things a human knows which is that Thomas isn't a sprinter and most likely won't beat Cavendish in a straight sprint.
Yes, set by forumala.
Probably, if Cancellara is racing, and is in form, but has no chance of winning he'd still be valued highly HOWEVER that is where you come in. If you know he's injured you don't pick him.
Whatever else the game still requires human input from the managers so it's up to you to work out who is priced too highly, who is priced correctly and who is a bargain.
Yeah, you're right!
I am! 
Thanks for the thorough and well thought-out answers, guys! 
Ok, now, I know I'm going to extremes, but, for "better" data, wouldn't it be better to go back to the results and count only 36 of Thomas's 52 points on Stage 6 of the TDU? That's because his 52 points include 8 for GC, 5 for PC and 3 for KM and are far more indicative of the nature of the race rather than his strength on flat stages...
On Stage 2, I would do the same, just count the Finish Line and PC and KOM points along the way... Well for any stage, really, because adding the GC, KM, PC and YR should count for the race, but not for calculations of how many points a rider has scored on a given type of stage...
I guess I think that if you remove GC, KM, PC and YR standing points from a riders scores for acertain kind of stage, the data is "better", or, if you will, more "accurate", since these GC, KM, PC and YR points, depend on the point of the race... Make sense?
By the same token, shouldn't Stage 2, which was classified as flat, be classified as something else? Maybe MM? I know there aren't a lot of options to classify a stage, but my point is, it obviously wasn't a "real" flat stage...
And then (!) maybe Geraint Thomas would not have been worth so much more for the TOQ! Just thinking out loud here
quite a few people will be logging on to see how they did still. it switches over today.
Gotcha, thanks...
Thanks, Dave...
Dave, another comment... Bear with me... I hate the changing rider values... Geraint Thomas and Barry Markus, for example, went up so much from one race to the other! Wow!
I think Guardini went down, am I right? Don't get me wrong, I think they merit increases, but get Geraint to "superstar" value at 35, a raise of 14 points, so soon? I'd just like the changes to be a little bit more gradual, like they were two or three seasons ago... Just thinking out loud here...
Now, it makes me wonder, will we have any 3 point riders at the Tour? By the time we get to the Tour, everybody will have a set of palmares that might make everyone worth over 10 points!
Wah, wah. wah... I'm crying over this but I miss having 2.7 point riders like Guardini last year available throughout the whole season, but, I have to admit, I do think the increases are merited, I just think they're happening too quickly, too dramatically and (!), I miss the bargains..
Now I feel like that for every competition rider values will be so closely monitored that it'll be difficult to get any real steals.... blah, blah, blah, sometimes I hate change....
There are a number of overlapping competitions so this wouldn't work, once the Tour of Qatar is the 'active' competition you'll land on that one but in fairness the TdU has only just finished.
Dave, I know it's not a major thing, but would you consider changing the links so that any time you click on 'Pick Team' it automatically takes you to the competition that is open? I don't see why it would default to a closed competition... Thanks!
thought you'd like 'em enrique
working on summat else you'll like too
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