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news
Brexit.pngBrexit: what does it mean to you and your bike?
There are a lot of weighty political and constitutional matters on people’s minds right now, but one of the things we’re wondering about here at road.cc is what it’ll all mean to bike and cycling component prices.
Yes, you’re right, there are other important issues on the agenda at the moment, like exactly how and when the UK will leave. Who will be the next prime minister and when will they be elected? And will the vote trigger another Scottish independence referendum? Of course, these are massive questions… but we’re really interested in bikes too.
The most often quoted timescale for Britain’s leaving of the EU is two years, although no one can be certain. But the actual exit process is not the only issue at stake here. The pound has fallen to levels not seen for over 30 years in the wake of the exit vote, and share prices have also been hit by the uncertainty surrounding the economy.
Shares in Halfords, Britain’s biggest bike retailer, for example, were priced at over £4 at the close of trading on Thursday, 23 June. They reopened at £3.20 on Friday morning, following the Brexit result announcement, and they’ve not been above £3.50 since. London's FTSE 250 index (it tracks 250 mid-sized companies) lost 7.2% over the day.
These could be just short term results of the exit vote, who knows? Will there be much of an upshot for the bike consumer?
“[The Brexit vote] won’t have an immediate effect on the price of goods as the 2016 stocks are already bought and paid for,” said Clive Gosling, marketing manager at CSG, which looks after Cannondale, Charge and Sugoi, among other brands.
“We are, however, just about to price the 2017 bikes that we will launch to dealers early August. We will have to speculate what the cost of these will be, based on the devalued GB pound against the US dollar, as most bicycles, parts, accessories and clothing are bought in US dollars.
“We will have to consider where the currency looks like settling rather than looking at the knee-jerk Brexit level – which, of course, is speculation on our part.
“Short term, I think 2017 bikes will be marginally higher priced. Longer term, bikes can be sourced out of markets where there are current EU dumping levies so it could mean lower factory prices to offset the currency if it doesn’t recover, hence no net increases over current prices. It might even make prices lower down the line.
“It’s all a step into the unknown but we don’t think you will see the dramatic price increases that people are speculating.”
When road.cc visited 3T a couple of weeks ago we were given a price for the new Exploro based on the UK remaining within the EU. We were told that the price would need to be reviewed if the UK left, although 3T would honour any orders made before the announcement.
We’ve contacted a whole host of other bib bike/component brands to ask about the implications of the Brexit vote, but they all say that it’s too early to comment.
“Officially, it's still no comment,” said one. “Our internal UK message is to keep on keeping on.”
In truth, it looks like any changes to duty are a way off yet, and if pro-leave politicians like Boris Johnson are to be believed, the UK can spend the next couple of years negotiating trade deals to minimise the impact on prices.
What about EU Standards? We’re used to seeing them on stickers and packaging for all kinds of products, including bike helmets and lights, for instance. All bike helmets sold in the UK currently have to conform to EN1078 European standard.
This European Standard is overseen by the European Committee for Standardization which has 33 national members. As well as all of the current EU states, non-EU states Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Macedonia and Turkey are members. Does that mean the UK will still be a member when it leaves the EU? We imagine so but we’re not entirely sure because no sovereign state has ever left the EU before.
We'll be returning to this issue in the coming days.
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87 comments
The FTSE and government spending are completely different things.
Attempting to conflate the two is fairly nonsensical.
If you do want to focus on the FTSE look at its value over the last 12 months. It always fluctuates and its current level is not actually unusual for the year.
Likewise for the value of the pound.
Did I say debunked, I mean LIE. Did I not see IDS on Marr this morning denying he said it? Obviously it must all be a conspiracy between the BBC, Twitter, Buzzfeed, Youtube and The Guardian, and those 3 million people who have signed a parlimentary petition that has to be debated.
At least it looks like we will have a Brunch of the long knives and remove Corbyn and see if we get a decent opposion for once.
@Leviathan
Again, it was not for Vote Leave to dictate how the money would be spent.
That will be the decision of whichever government is in power once we have actually left.
This should have been obvious.
Also, that petition is being investigated as fraudulent. Looks like someone has run an automatic script to artificially inflate the number of signatories. Story is on BBC website.
What money? There isn't any extra money to spend. "All things being equal" we never gave 350million in the first place. How are you still being fooled this?
@Leviathan
So we're not a net contributor to EU funds?
According to fullfact.org (usually pretty impartial) we made a net contribution of £8.5bn last year.
We do send circa £350m a week to the EU but we do get a lot back (including the rebate).
Using the gross figure (pre rebate) rather than the net is a bit sneaky but hardly unusual tactics in politics.
If all else remains equal we will have £8.5bn extra to spend post Brexit.
So there will be plenty of extra money to spend.
Thing is, when Government's spend money it doesn't go as well as you'd like. So, all things do need to be equal. It's all very complex as well, with a lot of linkage. So, the BOE made £250 billion available in liquidity on Friday to protect the markets and currency. That has to come from somewhere eventually.
But we're talking about money being spent in this country rather than being spent abroad.
Government spending is not a panacea but it is surely better to have our government spending it than someone else's?
Liquidity is normally in the form of credit swaps, so the BOE is taking on risk but not spending money as such.
There is no economic case for leaving the EU. Every credible study has shown it is likely to make things worse. The question is how much worse. Please argue it might be good for some other reason, as trying to argue the economic case just makes you look like a mendacious tool.
As soon as you start with personal insults you've basically lost the debate.
As I've said before I voted leave to restore sovereignty. The economic arguments were far less important in my opinion.
You didn't bother addressing my previous points so I don't see the point in continuing this.
Restore sovereignity? Sorry, what exactly does that mean? We're already a sovereign state under international law. We have an elected Government. A currency, a head of state. How much more sovereign do you want to be?
You've not done anything about "restoring sovereignity". You've caused the one of the biggest financial crashes and currency devaluation in history with associated repercussions for a decade to come.
Resortoing to insults is not a sign that you've won an argument, it's simply a sign that 52% of the population were drawn in by a campaign of lies, deceit, spin and outright bullshit and were too fucking stupid to see past it.
I don't see why you feel the need to insult anyone who disagrees with you?
Different people have different motivations for voting. That does not make them wrong and you right.
Democracy only succeeds when we accept that our fellow citizens have opinions that are as valid as our own.
Challenge those opinions if you disagree and attempt to convince them otherwise but once you resort to insulting people you will never win the argument.
As to your question. I wish to live in a country where laws are made by directly elected politicians who can be voted out of office easily.
In the current EU laws are made by the unelected European Commission. The European Parliament cannot create nor repeal laws.
If I disagree with a law created by the commission I cannot vote for an alternative.
That is, in my mind, undemocratic and so I voted to leave the EU.
Surveys done after the vote found that the restoration of sovereignty was the most common reason given for voting Leave.
I've got to be honest, but I don't think my bike cares about Brexit one way or t'other.
@Leviathan
There's no evidence of widespread "buyers regret", just a few anecdotes.
ComRes poll for today's Sunday Mirror showed more people happy with result than unhappy with it and a majority of people not wanting a second referendum.
As for the "debunked" £350 million claim, we won't know how the EU contributions will be spent until we have negotiated our exit and the first post Brexit budget has been announced.
How we spend the additional money will be decided by the elected government at the time, it was never going to be the decision of random people in Vote Leave, anyone with a basic grasp of how our democracy works would have realised that.
If we leave the EU completely and all else remains equal (a big if admittedly) there will be an additional £350m to spend though.
No there bloody won't. We get a rebate, so the amount we pay is not £350m. Have you really managed to get to this point without understanding this?
See my post above yours.
I did miss out the rebate but even without it we're talking multiple billions of pounds.
“We never made any commitments. We just made a series of promises that were possibilities." says IDS today.
Of course, you're right. We take the gross figure now, when we stop paying it, then we have to pay for the stuff that we either a) promised to pay for b) already do pay for and c) the stuff that europe paid for.
And, of course, it's quite a lot of stuff to quite a lot of people. The NHS, yes, then pesky stuff like University grants, science funding, farmers, new swimming pools and infrastructure. All things being equal, of course. And if all things are equal that's great. Thing is, Westminster is a bit like an austere dad. Never gives you the fun stuff. So you have to go and ask your nice Grandad in Europe and he's a bit better. You feel a bit cut off from Dad. We're back to asking Dad again now so we ahve to make sure he remembers his promises (of possibilities) and is a bit nicer to us.
Thing is, dad just changed jobs and had a bit of a pay cut.
As I said before, only a government can make spending decisions so why people would believe that Farage etc would suddenly be writing the budget post Brexit is beyond me.
Our net spend on the EU is £8.5bn. That's after all the stuff Europe pays for, all the farm subsidies etc.
If we leave completely we will now be able to elect a government to decide how to spend that money.
They may decide to fund the NHS, use it for overseas aid or tax cuts or anything really.
The point is it will be a democratically elected British government making those decisions.
It is a sad and historical fact but younger people never vote in the numbers that they should. I was 20 in the 1997 General Election, voted and always have done. That doesn't mean the percentage for Remain is not reflective of their opinion. Many people are having Buyers-regret or non-voters remorse.
In the short term exchange rates and shares will recover to similar prices as the intrinsic value of the UK hasn't disappeared, unlucky if you are overseas this week and go to the Bureau but nothing to be worried about. Just keep an eye on Canyon prices.
The terribly weak non-entity that is Jeremy Corbin who did nothing to support Remain and pursued Labour voters to remain has just vacated the opposition to the right wing of the Conservative party and UKIP and betrayed the working people of the UK. The Tories will 'rationalize' to stimulate the economy. No one believes that likely Chancellor Michael Gove will put a single penny into the NHS. He is on record saying he would dismantle the NHS. The £350 million claim by Leave was debunked by everyone, but still allowed to stand. Cycling infrastructure projects will likely suffer the same fate under small government conservatism, and don't expect them to resist the car lobby.
The majority of young people voted to stay, and now will see their country 'rationalized,' marginalized and split up. I won't even talk about Immigration/free trade or Scottish independance. It was an emotive campaign that was created and highjacked by the right, now we need to work out this clusterfudge.
#Nomorereferendums
Have to take issue with that. Amongst 18-24 year olds, 75% of the 36% who bothered to turn out voted Remain. That's just over a quarter of young people.
Yet another significant hole in your post, I'm afraid.
This is an often repeated piece of sloppy journalism that has its origins in a book, written in 2009 mostly by Daniel Hannan, who is a member of the European parliament. As he had made a small contribution to the publication Michael Gove is named as a co-author.
Mr Hannan made the assertion that the NHS should be dismantled as it was a, "Sixty year mistake." When the book was released Gove immediately distanced himself from this point, saying, "I certainly do not share Dan's view of the NHS."
Just how much more explicit would you like him to be?
Yeah, it's a tricky one isn't it. On the evidence of Hannan in the last few days he can't really be trusted to be explicit either. He's taking a month off twitter now as well as he can't, it appears, handle the "bants."
We will have to see what happens when trading restarts on Monday...
Hopefully it will recoup the losses and provide the utopia predicted by Farage and Johnson.
Ahahahahahahahahaha....breathes....ahahahahahahahahahahaha
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M
It's a harsh one day loss but it's definitely not the end of the world
That is the biggest "if" in recent political history. I'd say there are 350 million reasons to never believe a word he says.
Are those gross or net reasons not to believe him?
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