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Retired neurologist says increased weight and acceleration of electric vehicles will lead to rise in cycling-related fatalities unless 20mph speed limits are introduced

“By going at 20mph we would save around 30 people from being killed or seriously injured every year in Gloucestershire,” says Dr Paul Morrish

A retired neurologist has urged Gloucestershire County Council to introduce 20mph speed limits in residential areas, which he says could save around 30 cyclists and pedestrians from being killed or seriously injured every year.

Speaking at a council meeting earlier this week, Gloucestershire resident Dr Paul Morrish said that between May 2019 and May 2021, five pedestrians and cyclists were killed, and 124 others seriously injured, on the county’s 30mph roads, Gloucestershire Live reports.

Morrish also claimed that the increased weight, size, and acceleration of electric vehicles could result in a rise in these figures on 30mph roads, unless improved safety measures are swiftly put in place.

The retired doctor called on the county council to follow the example of other local authorities in England and Wales by ensuring that communities in Gloucestershire who want 20mph limits to be implemented on residential roads can gain them quickly and easily.

> Wales set to reduce default speed limit to 20mph in residential areas

In England, a third of the population already lives in areas with 20mph speed limits, while from September blanket 20mph zones will be introduced in Wales on residential areas and streets busy with pedestrians, and where street lights are fewer than 200 yards apart.

Scotland is also set to make 20mph the “norm” in built-up areas, with councils permitted to make exceptions if they deem the area safe.

“Edinburgh has seen a 30 percent reduction in its casualties, in London on the 30mph arterial routes they’ve seen a 63 per cent reduction in collisions with pedestrians,” Morrish, who worked as a neurologist at Gloucestershire Royal Hospital, told a meeting at Gloucester’s Shire Hall on Wednesday.

“By going at 20mph we would save around 30 people from being killed or seriously injured every year in Gloucestershire.

“Why isn’t the council being more proactive in responding to all those communities to make the roads safer for them? That would encourage more people to choose walking or cycling. And we would have a fitter population and less money spent in the NHS.”

> People most likely to commute by bike where traffic speed below 20mph – but presence of lorries on roads makes no difference, says study

Responding to Dr Morrish’s concerns, the county council’s fire, community safety, and libraries cabinet member Dave Norman said that possible changes could concern “not just 20mph speed limits but the reduction of speed on roads where the current speed may be inappropriate”.

He continued: “What we need to do though is accept we have to go through due process.

“And due process involves consultation, and we are in a situation where I could not put my hand on my heart and say the right way forward is to make everywhere, where people want it, to immediately be a 20mph zone.”

Nevertheless, Norman said he would be happy to meet with Dr Morrish, along with the council’s road safety officers, to discuss where improvements could be made on a case-by-case basis.

> James May says 20mph is “plenty fast enough”, and hopes “change in attitude” can help end road sectarianism

In January, we reported that the government is considering draft road planning regulations which would introduce a default 20mph speed limit on new or redesigned urban and residential streets.

A draft version of Manual for Streets, the Department for Transport’s planning document for residential areas, seen by the Sunday Times and set to be published this year, says “the default should be to work to a design speed limit of 20mph in urban environments” and that “for residential streets, a maximum design speed of 20mph should normally be an objective, with significantly lower speeds usually desirable”.

Following the report, Neil Greig, director of policy and research at road safety charity the Institute of Advanced Motorists, argued that a default approach to 20mph on its own will not enhance road safety or benefit active travel.

“We’ve had longstanding concerns about a blanket approach to 20mph,” Grieg told the BBC’s Today programme.

“If you have to change the speed limit on a road, you have to change the environmental cues to tell drivers what speed they should be safely driving at. And the problem with simply changing to 20mph without changing the road, is that drivers will continue to drive on at the previous speeds.

“And that means you don’t have the safety benefits, and you don’t have the active travel benefits of changing the environment to make it easier to walk and cycle.”

After obtaining a PhD, lecturing, and hosting a history podcast at Queen’s University Belfast, Ryan joined road.cc in December 2021 and since then has kept the site’s readers and listeners informed and enthralled (well at least occasionally) on news, the live blog, and the road.cc Podcast. After boarding a wrong bus at the world championships and ruining a good pair of jeans at the cyclocross, he now serves as road.cc’s senior news writer. Before his foray into cycling journalism, he wallowed in the equally pitiless world of academia, where he wrote a book about Victorian politics and droned on about cycling and bikes to classes of bored students (while taking every chance he could get to talk about cycling in print or on the radio). He can be found riding his bike very slowly around the narrow, scenic country lanes of Co. Down.

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72 comments

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Broken_Chain replied to speculatrix | 1 year ago
0 likes

Every car has 1 single safety system above any developed to date.... ........ the driver.

As long as everything is functioning correctly without a mechanical failure, a good driver cannot be beaten.

Sure on the road there are 100's of potential contributing factors to cause an accident such as distracted cyclist/driver/pedestrian, cyclists/driver/pedestrian ignoring traffic lights or cyclist/driver/pedestrian ignoring Highway Code.

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chrisonabike replied to Broken_Chain | 1 year ago
2 likes

The trick - like the perfect ruler - is how you get the wonderful ideal kind rather than the ones reality tends to serve up.

Alternatively, knowing human nature and a bit of physics, maybe apply the principles of "sustainable safety" as opposed to wishful thinking or ideology.

https://sustainablesafety.nl/

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jaysa | 1 year ago
4 likes

“you have to change the environmental cues to tell drivers what speed they should be safely driving at. And the problem with simply changing to 20mph without changing the road, is that drivers will continue to drive on at the previous speeds."

Much of SW London where I live is a 20mph zone. There's broad acceptance of this limit. One environmental cue used is white circles with 20 inside painted on the road ... not so hard really, is it?

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Awavey replied to jaysa | 1 year ago
3 likes

but is that because the residential roads Im assuming are lined with parked cars, so the natural tendency is to drive slower, and then the 20mph limit is more easily adopted, rather than the lower limit is just being adopted ?

its just Ive seen 20mph zones implemented in residential areas, with signs, with visual cues and even with speed bumps and it makes no difference to the speed of how the vast majority drive in them.

same in 30limits, Ive seen roads where theyve installed speed cushions, which are next to useless imo as their width is smaller than most vehicles inside wheel to wheel width so people can just drive over them as if they arent there, and theyve installed a speed indicator sign, SUV overtook me went through the sign at 37mph, so his speedo was almost certainly showing 40mph. So there were physical cues, visual cues, and that driver was happily driving basically as fast as he wanted to.

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jaysa replied to Awavey | 1 year ago
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Some A roads around here, without parked cars are also 20 zones. I accept that narrower roads = generally lower speeds, but even on A roads round here most cars drive at 20 -27mph - a lot better for cyclists than 30 -37mph.

I'd like to see most roads in English towns and villages being 20mph, except dual carriageways. As a driver, it makes very little difference to my journey time, and its a lot safer because more time to observe and react and less speed to scrub off. Had my driving assessed recently by an IAM examiner who agreed btw ...

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Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
1 like

Meh.  And what does a retired neurologist know about the statistics of electric car accidents?  I'm betting sweet fa.

Probably also believes bike helmets should be mandatory coz it saves da brains.

Doctors are notoriously shit at statistical analysis unless it's actually their day job.

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imajez replied to Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
6 likes

Except he is correct on this matter. 
It's very basic physics. F=MA

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IanMSpencer replied to imajez | 1 year ago
5 likes

And he has correctly identified that electric cars have very good standing start acceleration, so it is not an unreasonable hypothesis that electric cars are more likely to create incidents through increased speeds in congested urban environments. Combined with the increased momentum, faster acceleration and poorer stopping is a problem is not an exactly radical science and it is unlikely that there could be a counter-intuitive compensating something around as drivers aren't noted for slowing down to compensate for poor stopping in SUVs.

If be interested in comparing the stopping distance of a Golf and an e-Golf.

Edit: old news https://www.whatcar.com/advice/buying/why-do-electric-cars-have-longer-b...

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ktache replied to IanMSpencer | 1 year ago
3 likes

Careful, there is mention of "wing" mirrors.

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IanMSpencer replied to ktache | 1 year ago
2 likes

I wonder whether "wing cameras" will become the new parlance. I suspect that people will still refer to rear view cameras as wing mirrors, causing excess pedantry across the nation.

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chrisonabike replied to ktache | 1 year ago
1 like

Are they right or left, though?

Maybe we could agree to just have one in the middle as a way to stop the thread descending into bickering?

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levestane replied to imajez | 1 year ago
2 likes

KE = 0.5 MV^2 shows that 30 has 2.25 times the energy to dissipate than 20.

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AidanR replied to levestane | 1 year ago
0 likes
levestane wrote:

KE = 0.5 MV^2 shows that 30 has 2.25 times the energy to dissipate than 20.

Yes, but the comparator is mass not velocity, i.e. EVs are heavier then IC vehicles. In terms of KE, a car being 20% heavier isn't going to make much difference. Moreover, smallish changes in KE are only going to make a difference in collisions which cause the vehicle (and driver) to significantly slow down. A pedestrian or cyclist is so much lighter than a car, that the small changes in the mass of the car are irrelevant.

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Xenophon2 replied to Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
0 likes

No offense, but at least he has formal medical training and probably the benefit of having seen many cases. 

What professional qualifications do you have to support your claim that he's wrong? 

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Secret_squirrel replied to Xenophon2 | 1 year ago
1 like

I'm a trained statistician unlike the quack who propbably did one term at med school if that.  
Facts matter, his unsubstantiated opinions shouldn't.

 

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Broken_Chain replied to Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
0 likes

I agree.

Although mommy always told me a good statistician can always come up with the result you want.
Just like those 79% of 48.31 women whose wrinkles disappeared after someone bought them cream X for Christmas 🎁

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Xenophon2 replied to Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
0 likes

So, show us your facts and explain how you arrive at your conclusion.  You're just making assumptions.

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tootsie323 replied to Secret_squirrel | 1 year ago
0 likes

Secret_squirrel wrote:

I'm a trained statistician unlike the quack who propbably did one term at med school if that.  
Facts matter, his unsubstantiated opinions shouldn't.

It's simple physics, really. A travelling object with increased mass will require more energy to stop

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Broken_Chain replied to Xenophon2 | 1 year ago
0 likes

What evidence do we have he has any formal medical training?

Would a brain 'doctor' be able to sew me back together if I got torn to shreds by 3 MAMILs riding abreast on their carbon bikes, straight through the red light at the pelican crossing I was using?

Might just be a 'Dr' because someone gave him a framed bit of paper at a Uni do

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tootsie323 replied to Broken_Chain | 1 year ago
1 like

A simple web search will tell you.

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ktache | 1 year ago
8 likes

Geofencing.

If it can work for those ever so dangerous electric scooters, surely it can be applied to the behemoths of the roads.

And some enforcement. Average speed cameras seem to work...

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chrisonabike replied to ktache | 1 year ago
2 likes

If...

But yes we should try, rather than just shrug.

I don't see any downsides to 20mph being the new 30mph, as long as there is some actual enforcement. I still think separation of modes where the motorised traffic volume is high and / or speed differential great (which can still be the case in a 20mph zone) is the gold-standard solution to lots of these issues. It just takes longer and more political "bravery" (Sadly more than most of our overlords possess).

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IanMSpencer | 1 year ago
7 likes

They could alternatively put a design limitation on car designs where they are not allowed to accelerate above a particular rate - very easy to implement on electric cars.

That they are selling these with higher acceleration when they are heavier in part just demonstrates the perverse priorities when supposedly range is a major factor. I guess when it comes to the crunch that a lot of drivers would buy a car with 50 miles less range if they have the occasional chance to burn away from the lights when they want to scare the mother in law.

It is perverse that performance way beyond our road's capacity is such a selling point. I'd set a maximum 0-60 of 13 seconds or less (more?), maximum speed of 75mph (with the ability to unlock when going abroad). Ideally, base it on power output as well, so if you get a big car you get a slow car.

In my local driving most NSL roads of 20 years ago are now a mix of 40 and 50mph.

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chrisonabike replied to IanMSpencer | 1 year ago
4 likes

Agreed. Sadly "top trumps" is a factor in advertising so even if you can't say "top speed 200mph!" saying "0-60 in 3 seconds" will indeed hook some folks, unnecessary as this is for getting from A-B. *

Maybe car ads should be regulated like cigarette ones? (was about to say alcohol but that's a low bar...)

* sorry, there's me forgetting that acceleration is a vital safety feature on UK roads again...

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ktache replied to chrisonabike | 1 year ago
3 likes

I worry that the growing size of today's vehicles, the wish for unnecessarily huge range, combined with insane acceleration will mean that we will see more deaths of innocents inside buildings.

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chrisonabike replied to ktache | 1 year ago
2 likes

Ah yes, good point. Probably we'll hear even more "it did it all by itself! " stories the more electronic distractions driver assistance features there are.

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hawkinspeter replied to ktache | 1 year ago
2 likes

ktache wrote:

I worry that the growing size of today's vehicles, the wish for unnecessarily huge range, combined with insane acceleration will mean that we will see more deaths of innocents inside buildings.

Or maybe a public call for mandatory pedestrian helmets (inside and outside use) - if it saves one life...

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qwerty360 replied to IanMSpencer | 1 year ago
1 like

Even if we struggle to hard limit capabilities, we could have similar classifications to motorbikes defined by combination of weight, acceleration, top speed, etc and make them easy to lose;

 

So extenuating circumstances on bans would automatically restrict you to the least capable vehicles, while the highest performance vehicles require a long period with a clean licence, extended (and periodic) tests, etc

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Karlt | 1 year ago
9 likes

“If you have to change the speed limit on a road, you have to change the environmental cues to tell drivers what speed they should be safely driving at. And the problem with simply changing to 20mph without changing the road, is that drivers will continue to drive on at the previous speeds."

At the top of this article is a picture of a red circle with a black number 20 in it. That is the cue. It's a massive bleedin' cue innit? It's obvious!

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eburtthebike replied to Karlt | 1 year ago
3 likes

And once all urban areas are 20mph, then the cues will be exactly the same as 30mph now, so drivers will have no difficulty whatsoever.

"......Neil Greig, director of policy and research at road safety charity the Institute of Advanced Motorists, argued that a default approach to 20mph on its own will not enhance road safety or benefit active travel."

Well, it appears to have worked everywhere it's been tried, so sorry Mr Greig, stick with baking: road safety seems to be beyond you.

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