"Safety in numbers": Electric scooter schemes reduce cyclist collisions by 20%, new study suggests

A new study suggests that electric scooter schemes appear to reduce the risk of cycling collisions by around 20 per cent — University of Bristol researchers stating their findings "support the 'safety in numbers' hypothesis" that people become safer as the number of micromobility transport users increases.

The research — published in the British Medical Journal and the work of Hannah B Edwards, Frank de Vocht, Russ Jago, Miranda Armstrong, Edward Carlton, and Yoav Ben-Shlomo — looked at cycling collision rates in areas before and after an e-scooter scheme was implemented, and compared those figures to collision rates in areas without a hire scheme.

Currently, using privately-owned e-scooters on public roads or cycle lanes is illegal in the UK, although Lime, Voi and other providers have legal hire schemes in many locations.

The University of Bristol researchers collated police collision data in the UK between 2015 and 2023, with all of the e-scooter schemes analysed introduced following the start of the Covid pandemic. While the collision rates for all vehicles decreased during the pandemic with fewer journeys being made, the overall rates of collisions returned to pre-pandemic levels for all studied areas, regardless of any e-scooter scheme.

e-scooter-and-e-bike-parking_600px (credit: Wandsworth Council)

Notably however, the rate of cycling collisions was found to be about 20 per cent lower in areas with e-scooter schemes, compared with the pre-pandemic period. Once pandemic restrictions were fully lifted, cycling collision rates in e-scooter scheme areas stayed at least 10 per cent lower than expected compared to control areas. For serious and fatal collisions, the rate remained 20 per cent lower than expected in areas with an e-scooter scheme.

 The researchers added that combining cycle and e-scooter collisions together did not change the results, suggesting that the reduction in cycling collisions was not at the cost of more e-scooter collisions.

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"We were delighted to confirm the safety in numbers hypothesis but we need further data to be sure this is a real effect," Yoav Ben-Shlomo, Professor of Clinical Epidemiology at the University of Bristol said.

"If more people are encouraged to cycle, because the roads are safer, there are potentially even larger positive effects. Not just from fewer accidents [collisions], but because of the health benefits of being more physically active."

The University of Bristol celebrated the study, noting that while there have been similar findings from previous studies, this "is the first natural experiment to look at micromobility 'safety in numbers'."

Escooter parking.JPG (credit: Southwark Council)

It supports the hypothesis that the more people use micromobility forms of transport the safer they become due "to behavioural changes of motorists".

The study concluded by noting that, if verified, the findings "could have important implications for policy and practice" and suggest policies to encourage active-mode and micromobility transport options "should be supported if they can be demonstrated to improve safety as well as reducing injuries".

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"This could lead to public health and environmental benefits from increased physical activity (improving cardiorespiratory health, obesity, life expectancy) and reducing carbon emissions," the study concluded.

Commenting on the research a cycling instructor and founder of East Bristol Kidical Mass, Zoe Banks Gross, called the findings "positive".

Cycle Lane - eScooter 2 (credit: Simon MacMichael)

"This research showing a decrease in cycling collisions alongside the increased use of e-scooters is positive," she said. "Increasing actual and perceived safety is important to encourage more people to cycle. Even with a decrease in collisions, our streets still need more space for active travel and micromobility."

Brian O'Kelly, the manager of cycling club Bristol Road Club, added: "The safety in numbers hypothesis is true in that it changes the way a motorist views cyclists and other vulnerable road users. When you see a lot of the same thing, such as a slow cyclist, you get less triggered and so use better judgement in passing them."