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65 comments
Found an article about a Berlin startup (Swobbee) wanting to introduce a similar idea into Europe: https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/09/berlin-based-swobbee-wants-to-bring-micromobility-battery-swapping-to-europe/
They're basing the business model on Gogoro in China: https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/10/gogoro-launches-battery-swapping-stations-in-china/
They will have to park but there will be significantly fewer of them.
If you consider that the average car is only in use 5% of the time and carries on average 1.1 person per journey the scope for reducing the actual number of cars is enormous.
Increasing the time in use to just 10% and average occupancy to just 2 could reduce car numbers by almost three quarters.
Most of those could be accommodated in densely packed off road parking locations with a small portion parking on street for easy access when needed.
I'm interested on your notes on e-taxis; for all i know this could be how it goes. However I see a couple of points here which could mean this doesn't become a major thing. (As you pointed out previously it does already exist).
In my experience cycling with people who're less confident about cycling (anecdata with a small sample size!) drivers not following the rules hasn't been the biggie. It's just proximity to fast / large / noisy vehicles. This seems to be bourne out in various studies / surveys ([1], [2], article about this). Don't know if all vehicles scrupulously followed the guidance (not all rules, see...) in the Highway Code that would have made a difference.
Second - if owning a vehicle declines this may (subject to whatever else changes in the future) mean car clubs instead. That can also be a good thing but doesn't necessarily give as much "better driving" benefits.
I agree about virtuous circles though. Although excellent provision for cycling is still not always "given" in e.g. The Netherlands apparently it's now a less partisan issue where mistakes and oversights can generate a noticeable public response.
I'm not sure the arrival of fully autonomous vehicles, whenever that is, will necessarily mean the decline of car ownership. People are wedded to the idea of owning cars not only to drive them or (obvously) as status symbols, but as mobile personal spaces, a combination of living room and storage (and occasionally bedroom but that's another matter). You can't leave your possessions in the boot of a car that's going to be hired out to a stranger, nor can you feel cosy-certain that the cup holders, music and air con will be as you like them. How do we got over this? I'm not sure; I expect there will be attempts at customisable bus seats, but that's not a good way to go.
New cars now have user profiles which set the air con, radio and even seat to your exact preference automatically.
That will definitely be a feature of shared use cars.
The lack of a boot for storing stuff will be a negative but the cost differential will likely be enormous between shared car use and private car ownership so I expect many people will be willing to accept it.
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