Liege - Bastogne - Liege 2012

I've worked out two teams, one spaniard free, one with the spaniard. The first has some nice high value DSs who should score, the second isn't as balanced (ends up with cheaper probably non-scoring DSs) but gives me a bigger chance of top 3 finishes.

Some 'back of an envelope' maths:

1,2,3 and 4 scores 145 points
If you don't get a top 3 you need 4-12 to score 135 points plus, let's assume 5 from a team mate, gives you 140.

The points drop off from 1-5 is so steep that I think the right option for me at least is to go big and go for 2-4 riders who not only can but should win and hope for some backup from cheap DSs. For these races stacking your team for 9 top 20 finishes won't score as well as 3 in the top 5 if you manage to pick the winner.

Nope im staying clear of the spaniards and thats whay ive axed j-Rod

hmm, now you've got me stumped, I was sure you'd have a certain Spaniard.

nope your wrong...I would have 3.9 credits if i remember correctly

Got it in one! Well, maybe not win, but podium would justify the price tag I think. Unproven over 250km though (as far as I know), so is a risk. He was always the one I intended to keep for all three Ardennes races though, so I'd feel pretty dumb if I dropped him and he ended up winning it.

Just need to decide on a couple of left-field DSs that not many people will have, see if I can generate a late surge up the table!

So Chris it seems you think Mollema could win then...

Drheaton, i like your tactic, but wont me off him as he has different form

so my team is looking like this im thinking

An unnamed rider that I shall not reveal
F Schleck
Vanendert
an in form italian

Another rider most have, that i didnt previously
Wegmann
Florencio
Nordhaug
And a cheap rider that I haven't decied on to replace Kreder

Also, hopefully to confuse a few of you, Vanendert's last few LBL results:

Quote:

2011 OMEGA PHARMA - LOTTO 17th
2009 SILENCE-LOTTO 25th
2008 FRANÇAISE DES JEUX 82nd
2007 CHOCOLADE JACQUES - TOPSPORT VLAANDEREN 26th

Yeah, Frank is a funny one - he seems to like LBL and that puncture on Weds prevented us from seeing how good his finishing might be. I've decided to drop J-Rod so its either Frank or Phil to come in. I could just leave it at that, but with 4 more transfers available the temptation to do some tinkering is difficult to resist! One guy no-one seems to have mentioned above that I'm definitely keeping though - feel like it could be his big breakthrough...

I have identified plenty of cheap DSs for Romandie, and 2 fairly cheap stars, so will choose my two expensive stars (no idea who yet!) and then just go with whatever I can afford from my DS list...

Thanks for the advice, its a steep learning curve but I think I'm getting there!

Currently got

Sammy Sanchez,
Nibali,
Henao,
Vanendert

Albasini,
Nocentini,
De Waele
Florencio
M Kreder

I want to keep Vanendert and Henao is currently the cheapest star so he'll probably be kept. Dropping De Waele, Kreder and probably Florencio (although a cheap Katusha rider is always handy) so my big decision is whether to keep Sanchez/Nibali or trade up/down.

Sanchez' last four finishes have been 10, 10, 13 and 15. Nibali has one good result (last year's 8th) but other than that has been gash in LBL, but he's on form and after MSR and FW could well feature heavily.

I reckon I can bank on two top 10 with cheaper riders than Sanchez/Nibali (Gerrans, Uran maybe even Martens) and maybe trade up Henao instead for another of those three. Otherwise F Shrek is within budget and with a record of 2, 8, 23, 3, 3 and 7 in the last 6 years should score well.

Like Tera the choice is go big and try for the win or go conservative and pick steady riders who are, as much as possible, guaranteed performers.

As my brother says though, 'Go big or go home'.

Yep that is correct Chris....so basically my choice is Wegmann or him (the only combo i cant afford is wegmann and J-Rod, but im thinking keep Schleck and have one of them and axe J-Rod for another in form guy)

The problem is im 35th now the classics and need to be risky to try and gain places (as the score difference is actually only about 40ish points i think betweeen me and 1st)
but i am also wary about my being 25th in the overall, and dont really want to loose places. realistically a good LBL good put me back up to 20th from where i dropped in the overall after wednesdays race.

There are many options and when for example there are 4/5 riders of similar price that could all do well.

For me I always look at a start list and the course profile and past results etc. Then pick a team within budget and but normally a few riders im dead set on having and few that I wil wiggle round with. Then I have to factor transfers and all 3 events around it. (which had i stuck to my original plans I would have lost my 14 points for Wegmann in amstel, but got 40 for Albasini in FW...which annoyed me). Which is why im dead set on one star riding coming in, and also reluctant on getting rid of Frank. However my original plan was to axe Vanendert for said rider and still have J-Rod, but im not gonna axe Vanendert now, that would be too risky.

What I do with purists games, like romandie next week, pick out the 2/3 riders im dead set on, then fit others around it.

TER - Is your Italian DS a teammate of Cunego's? Who got points for me in our Vasco game, and La Fleche? I like playing the guessing game!

I have a good feeling about 3 top stars, question is - do I pick all three, leaving me only able to afford cheap DS unlikely to score, or do I stick with just 2 of them and inevitably drop the winner?! I have 5 transfers and no greyed-out riders, and my team scored over 100 in La Fleche Wallone, which should be a good position to be in. A more experienced player would probably cash in, but for me there are just way too many options so I'm bound to pick the wrong one!

Happy with

Gilbert
Nibali
Jeannesson
Gerrans

Kreder
Arashiro
Albasini
Florencio
Lofqvist

1 transfer left so may swap Lofqvist if no more greys.

You have the German DS correct. But the Italian is not Nocentini, slightly cheaper than him.

Im not gonna go Nibali I don't think, would mean axing both Schleck and Rodriguez and then have only one DS change and wouldn't be able to afford to bring in the DS I want

Nibali's favourite classic so he's a must.

I can't believe anyone who has ridden Trentino will do well in lbl. Those that saw the Trentino climb yesterday will understand. I think they have another climb like that again today.

Had 7 riders score at FW so looking good with no grey outs. Bummed I decided to go with Gilbert instead of J. Rod. I will probably stick with it though.
Italian DS = Nocentini?
German DS= Wegmann

If so I say Nocentini. I picked him up after Amstel.

i dont think any one in the trentino can do much in liege cause trentino is really hard and also finishes on friday,so cant see them having the legs to stay with people who have had a rest since wednesday.may be proven wrong though

There are also a few guys who missed Fleche Wallone in favour of the Trentino, but will be back in the Ardennes for LBL on Sunday. Including a teammate and possible team leader of this certain Italian mentioned above... Will it help or hinder his prospects?

Rolland, Cunego and Dupont are among those riding well in the Trentino - can they do anything in Liege?

I think my biggest decision is the italian DS or german DS, would love to have both but cant afford

im waiting this time aswell,i made the mistake of doing my transfers as soon as amstel finished and then sanchez and gerrans didnt do fleche wallone

I doubt i'm keeping J-Rod, Gilbert will be my only star i'm keeping at this moment, but 2 days to decide

the certain italian im guessing is gasparotto,i think he's a good person to have in your team,last year he was with the leading group but was caught between waiting for his team leader 'vino' or staying. he is also in much better form this year,he could be one to watch!

you have left me 3 options, Schleck and a german, schleck and an italian or J-Rod and an Italian.

Also is L-B-L a step too far for a certain Italian, if he is there at the finish I think he could win again, but will he be there? after all he managed 11th at FW though as well. I could go safer and go Gerrans or go Henao....hmmm options

i wouldnt keep j-rod,look at his result in amstel gold,far enough he won fleche wallone,but thats only because he likes the really steep finishes,liege is about the longer climbs