Cycle to work to reduce coronavirus risk, says Government adviser

Aw shucks.

Nigel Garage wrote:

Seems reasonable advice if people are feeling scared, but the overall trajectory of infections isn't clear at the moment. I think the government is following the correct line for the time being and shouldn't panic into taking additional measures which could backfire in terms of public confidence. That said, people should be precient of the increasing numbers of infections.

Just to reassure people, there were 2 people in my household that contracted Covid in the last 2 weeks, one had no symptoms and the other had a minor sniffle. I personally didn't even contract it - hard to tell if that's because I'd had it before without knowing it or simply because my immune system and fortitude overcame it before it infected me.

I'll be having a "wonderful family Christmas" regardless of what these people instruct me to do.

I don't know how much clearer it could be, it's been going consistantly up for 40 days.

Although, that is not necessarily to say the government is not following the right line. Reports in the times state the modeling expects the numbers to fall sometime in the autumn without taking further action.

With cases currently dominated by secondary school children, this group will be lgaining immunity faster than other groups due to infections and vaccination.

It's a big call, because if the cases will plateau of their own accord, then continuing as now might be right. (Deaths are only about 6% of total deaths, and no worse than a often see in flu season)
But if cases do coburg to rise as currently, then beat to take action as early as possible.

Nigel Garage wrote:

Your post is surprisingly accurate, except for the fact that you haven't noticed figures from the previous couple of days make the current trajectory unclear. As you mentioned, the fact that school kids are gaining natural immunity will self-limit the spread, and it could well have peaked in the last few days of half term (chart attached, yesterday's figure was the second lowest in around 2 weeks). Today's figure should be lower still as usually Monday's figures are lower due to NHS reporting, we shall see. Additionally there has been a North-Sputh spread of the virus over the past couple of weeks which has increased the numbers, due to the fact the South is more populous than the North.

From the chart you cite as evidence, only one day shows a lower figure than the same day of the previous week. So forgive if I want more than a single data point to cast doubt on the trend from 40 preceding days.

Nigel Garage wrote:

wycombewheeler wrote:

From the chart you cite as evidence, only one day shows a lower figure than the same day of the previous week. So forgive if I want more than a single data point to cast doubt on the trend from 40 preceding days.

*Breaking news*, Covid trend turns negative. Nige right again, showing amazing prescience!

Looking forward to Covid rates likely trending downwards throughout autumn. 

certainly yesterdays data was very positive. but it also looked good at the start of september as well, before ramping up again.

I hope you are right, but hope for the best and preapre for the worst is not a bad philosophy.

Nigel Garage wrote:

... the fact that school kids are gaining natural immunity will self-limit the spread ...

As a secondary school teacher, it very much appears that the government's plan is to simply let teenagers catch the virus and gain immunity (which wanes over time in exactly the same way as vaccination does). I cannot see any other reason for lifting all school mitigation mandates. and ploughing on in the face of literally thousands of infections of school age children. 

This policy does, however, ignore the potential long term effects. There are several students in my school who had the virus at the back end of 2020/21 and still have not returned to school due to ongoing symptoms, and whilst most of the 200+ who have tested positive this year so far have returned at the end of their 10 day isolation period some have not and remain quite badly ill. 

And that is to ignore the teachers that have also had to isolate and, in some cases, also been extremely ill ... all of which means that education is still being disrupted not only for the the students who are in themselves but all those taught by those teachers. 

Two weeks ago, I had three students taken out of one of my lessons as the school had just been advised of positive PCR tests (the entirety of one year group had been advised to have them as a precaution after we had had a large number of positive LFTs and a number of students with serious symptoms), which means I and 26 other teenagers were sharing a room with three people known to be infectious ... several of the students also themselves tested positive within a few days possibly, but not necessarily, from that exposure. 

Frankly, I am at a loss as to how I still haven't caught it myself. 

Too many of the arguments on both sides are too simplisitc, including on this thread. There was no reason not to open up the whole economy and leave a legal requirement to wear masks in some situations in place (for example), and definitely no reason to lift all restrictions in schools at the same time. It is just way too easy to focus the debate on the numbers and forget that behind those numbers are situations that the government is basically ignoring ... or that is what it feels like in any case. 

I now return you to your normal broadcast. 

Me too (tho went from 5x bus to 2x cycle and 3 days at home). And feeling the benefit: if I don't ride to work (when isolating) the weekend rides seem more difficult.

Top mention of Ch Insp Dreyfus by the way.

I've gone the other way - from cycle commuting come rain or shine, to working remotely most of the time. I never considered my commute exercise when I was doing it every day, but I notice it now...