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Giro d'Italia - Rest Day
It's been a cracking race so far, and I can only see it getting better.
I'm going to go out at lunch and put a tenner on Wiggins to win. I think he'll bounce back and I don't think Nibali and Astana are set up to defend the Pink for two weeks.
Also, the race plan for the likes of Nibali was probably to work together with riders like Scarponi or Santambrogio to put time into their rivals. Now though, no-one will work with Nibali to put time into Wiggins/Hesjedal, why would they? Nibali is the leader and if anyone wants to win this race then they need to take time out of Nibali, not Wiggins. That means lots of attacks that Nibali will need to chase.
So, that being said, who do you reckon will come out of the rest day strongest and do Sky have a plan for the rest of the race?
If you're new please join in and if you have questions pop them below and the forum regulars will answer as best we can.
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Just done a roster update and taken out all the abandonments including a couple not yet on cycling fever, namely Vicioso and Degenkolb who've both packed it in.
According to Procyclingstats, the following abandoned/dnf on stage 9.
GIL MARTINEZ Tomas Aurelio Androni - Venezuela
CHICCHI Francesco Vini Fantini
JEANNESSON Arnold FDJ
Jeannesson is still showing in my team.
Just had a quick look at last years TdF results and upto stage 11 Evans was still there then on stage 11 he imploded trying to keep up with Wiggins and Nibali.
I know he wasn't well but that hit him later in the race.
I expect the same to happen again to be honest once the bigger mountains arrive.
Im not really sure what will happen apart from a fantasy point of view I think Nibali and Santambrogio are a must, after that who knows what will happen from day to day. Im thinking Cadel maybe ok tomorrow, and his effort in the TT shows he is serious about finishing high up, but do I point him in? Do I keep Wiggo? What role will Ryder play, do I axe him now? Do I go cheaper and hedge my bets, Scarponi, Niemiec, Pozzovivo and Betancur will all feature at some point, but when? and who do you sacrifice for them.
Will someone like Tiralongo go on a long break?
I think Pirazzi is now the safer choice for me over Visconti. What can Di Luca do? Gavazzi and Battaglin are cheap, but will they score many more points?
I think that Saturday's TT was very tough, long with a climb at the end and it may well have taken a lot out of some guys yesterday. It wasn't only Hesjedal that suffered, I noticed Weening too wrote off his GC top ten attempt.
A rest day will help and there is an awful long way to go. We really wont have a good idea about how things are going to go until the last week as with two consecutive flat stages this week the real race doesn't even start until Friday.
That is the way a grand tour should be, and it's all the better as a viewer for it. Nibali is just, the favourite for now, but think about it, if he had a crash or something, and had to retire, would you still be confident that Wiggins would win? I think he would be odds on with the bookies but I wouldn't want to put any of my own money on him then. 6/1 now, I am not rushing down there, maybe Friday morning the odds will be better.
Agree with many of the comments above. Would Wiggins necessarily want to be in pink at the moment? Surely that might make things more difficult and put more pressure on him for the next 10/11 stages?
I fancy a tenner on Scarponi as an outside bet. He looks really determined. IIRC, he didn't lose much time in the TT either.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Udine/forecasts/latest
time to get wiggo on board then?
Yeah, Gesink looks solid but he's liable to fall over at any point, and I agree, Evans will probably target a stage win or point jersey if he starts to fall behind on GC.
I'm wondering if tomorrow is too early for the proper mountain goats, Pozzovivo, Scarponi etc, to really start trying to make up time or whether they'll sit and wait for the last week. Scarponi probably needs 4 minutes or more on everyone to have a chance at winning.
Also, what do you think are the odds of Sky letting Henao/Uran off the chain and having them attack Nibali? Might work as a good tactic that'd benefit Wiggins in the long run. Have the two climbers trying to gain time on Nibali putting him under pressure and make him work to keep them in check before Wiggins guns it in an effort to drop everyone.
Not so sure that Scarponi will suffer in the last ITT at all.....it's a twisty mountainy climby one.
I'm also waiting for a 'Sammy Special' and hope I haven't missed the bus with my stage 10 transfers.
It would also be no surprise to see the Colombians move up the leaderboard sifgnificantly this week.....Betancur in particular because he'll be a leading contender on the uphill ITT.
Evans and Wiggo are getting through on grit at the moment but I agree that Bradley looks more like Bambi on Ice on the descents where Hesjedal set the tone on stage 3 with his downhill attacks that have just kept coming and coming.
With Gesink on my squad that's usually the cue for his annual 'season-ending crash' unfortunately but the false flat finishes that come after along uphill drag will suit him if he can keep all his bones in one piece.
Either way we've got a great fortnight of racing(and scenery) still to come
I also think Wiggins will be stronger in the proper mountains, although whether he can beat Nibali is another matter. Ideal situation for the British cycling fan in a way - it'll be far more exciting watching him try to come from behind than it was to watch him and his teammates (rightly) kill a race last year that was tailor-made for him. Could be set for a brilliant couple of weeks if he finds top form.
And could this be Gesink's breakthrough to a Grand Tour podium?? Dare I say he has looked very solid so far, as have his team.
Evans? Wouldn't be surprised to see him go for the points jersey if he can't quite push for pink. Looking a better fantasy pick than Wiggo for sure, although we'll know a lot more after tomorrow...
Hesjedal was a shock the other day on that climb...He just seemed to die....Tomorrow should tell us a bit more about Cadel after the first really properly hilly day...
Few strange things happening on this tour for me though..I cannot believe Intxaustis TT in the pink...he is such a strong consistent TT'er,and I thought the distance and terrain were made for him...
Cannot believe what I am seeing from Wiggo on these descents at the moment....It looks as though he has never ridden a bike before...
Roll on tomorrow...
What about Evans? He's looked strong but he claims his target is the Tour, is he lying or will he ease off in the last week of the Giro? He looks strong but I don't know how long he can keep up with the rest.
Also, what happened to Hesjedal?! He's not looked as strong as I expected.
Agree on Evans - I tipped Nibali at the outset and am sticking, but Evans has been canny and strong up to now. He'd be my second fave.
You'll get the best value backing Wiggins now and of course I'd like to see him win, but I don't fancy him now.
After today, I reckon Santambrogio will have a proper go, maybe at least for a stage win in the mountains.
Nibali all the way....Wiggins not in top 3....Anymore rain and he will not finish in top 10....